La Trobe – Australia 2028

Despite the very large margin in 2025, unfavourable redistributions of this seat, Labor’s dithering of choosing a candidate and this seat getting no attention what so ever the Labor performed extremely well. I must admit I was convinced that this seat would get a double digit margin after 2025 due to the cost of living pressures really bitting an electorate like this. It’s likely that Labor will preselect Jeff Springfield due to name recognition however I remain unconvinced that they’ll pick this seat up next time around. The Greens performed extremely well in the Officer booths and the Pakenham booths which is quite impressive for an outer suburban seat so far away from their traditional heartland.

It’s possible that they’re getting Alessandra Soliven to run here in the state seat of Pakenham just to build up some name recognition for 2028 so they can field here, I could see it paying off especially is they expand parliament and Jason Wood moves seats.

This seat would be one that will be increasingly vulnerable to Labor. The Morrison Government’s HomeBuilder Grants would be popular among voters purchasing house and land packages in areas like here and Holt hence the strong performance in outer suburban areas. This evaporated by the 2025 election along with the anti-immigration and anti-multiculturalism direction of the Libs. Unless the Libs completely change direction, the increasing South Asian population in La Trobe would likely hand this seat to Labor.

Anyone know how the Greens did so well in Pakenham and Officer in 2025? Getting over 15% of the primary vote at outer suburban booths is a rarity.

@Votante,
A few reasons as to why. Firstly, young people moving out from the city who are starting a family who take their progressive views with them. Secondly, young adults in their 20’s who can’t afford to move out of home. Thirdly, renting close to the city is super expensive so young people have moved further out as it’s cheaper plus Victoria has mandatory if possible two days work from home.

@SpaceFish, it’s interesting that there is suburbanisation of the Greens vote to the outskirts of Melbourne. Renting or buying a home in Melbourne isn’t as expensive as in most other capital cities. I didn’t think the pro-Palestine vote or working class vote would be that strong in this neck of the woods. In similar places in Sydney, the Greens vote was in the high teens at most.

@ Votante
i think there some South Asian muslims here but the main minority here are Hindus and Sri Lankan Buddhists. Hinduism is the main minority religion in this electorate. Further West in Bruce and to a lesser extent Holt there are way moe Muslims including Afghans which is why Pro Palestine setniment is stronger there

@SpaceFish: “Victoria has mandatory if possible two days work from home”. Work from home laws does not make working from home two days a week mandatory for anyone, even if they can work from home. If someone wants to work five days a week in the office even though they can work from home, they won’t be forced to work from home two days a week. The work from home laws just makes it a legislated right for workers who can work from home to work from home at least two days a week, and employers can’t refuse their requests to work from home without compelling reasons.

La Trobe’s geography creates a sharp socio‑economic divide: the rural and semi‑rural areas around Beaconsfield Upper, Emerald and Gembrook have long‑standing conservative voting patterns, while the new estates in Clyde North, Officer and Pakenham are dominated by young families, migrants and high mortgage exposure.
• The electorate has one of the highest proportions of residents working in trades, construction and logistics, which shapes attitudes toward infrastructure, transport and cost‑of‑living pressures.
• Clyde North and Officer have extremely high population churn, meaning many residents are recent arrivals who have not yet formed strong partisan attachments. This makes the seat more fluid than older, established electorates.
• The cultural diversification of the new suburbs is occurring at a pace faster than most outer‑metro seats in Melbourne, which increases the salience of multicultural outreach, community festivals and religious engagement.
• The rural fringe retains a strong “traditional Australia” identity — small business owners, long‑term homeowners, volunteer‑based community networks — which contrasts sharply with the dense, master‑planned estates of the growth corridor.
• Transport infrastructure is a major political driver: long commutes, congestion on the Princes Freeway, and reliance on the Pakenham line shape daily life for many residents.
• The electorate’s demographic future is being driven almost entirely by the growth corridor, not the rural fringe. This creates a long‑term structural tension between the seat’s historical identity and its emerging one.
• Jason Wood’s multicultural engagement is notable because it attempts to bridge both halves of the electorate — appealing to culturally diverse new arrivals while maintaining visibility in traditional rural communities.
• The seat’s political volatility is less about ideology and more about rapid demographic change, mortgage stress, infrastructure pressures and the coexistence of two very different social worlds within one electorate.

Why do you say the area around Emerald and Gembrook have long-standing conservative voting pattern? Labor won all three booths in the Dandenongs (Emerald, Cockatoo, Gembrook) last election. Upper Beaconsfield is a bit like Harkaway, very semi rural and conservative, but not properly in the tree changer Dandenongs like Emerald and Cockatoo.

@ Adam sorry it was a typo they were marginal. You are correct The are more centrist. They are less Progressive than the Yarra Ranges share of the Dandenongs-Belgrave Selby, Kallista and Olinda. I agree Upper Beaconsfield, Harkaway are very conservative. I meant to type Koo Wee Rup, Bunyip and Nar Nar Goon have long standing conservative voting patterns. The Cardinia share of the Dandenongs seems to more marginal than the Yarra Ranges share but i dont know the reason.

I think it has to do with the Belgrave/Upwey/Sassafras/Olinda/Selby/Kallista area being more forested (and also closer to Melbourne) while other areas like Emerald, Cockatoo, Gembrook and even to an extent Monbulk, Belgrave South are more open, with larger properties, some horticulture and farming etc which tends to be more typical of semi rural areas rather than ‘mountain towns’. They still do have some of that mountain character though which is why they are marginal not ultra conservative like most semi rural areas. They are not too different to places like Seville, Woori Yallock etc in Yarra Ranges Shire. Cockatoo has also historically been one of the lower socio-economic towns in the Dandenongs too. I do think that area belongs in Casey, not La Trobe, like they are now in the state seat of Monbulk.

@ Adam
I think this is a good observation those towns that are more Forested and elevated tend to be more progressive. I think Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook are connected by puffing billy line which can them a more tourism focus compared to semi-rural area especially those with less retail etc.I would say Narre Warren East is the most ultra conservaive place in Yarra Ranges followed by Gruyere/Coldsteam etc. La Trobe was won by Labor in 2010 but Labor would not have won La Trobe on current boundaries in 2010. Back then it has the progressive townships in the Dandenongs and Labor friendly parts of Knox now in Aston. Also most of Cardinia council was in McMillan or Flinders (coastal parts) back in 2010. This is a longer term target for Labor due to urbanisation.

Could the Liberals’ Jason Wood be out of the 2CP?

Accent/Redbridge’s MRP polling shows One Nation first on primary votes and Labor’s primary vote ahead of the Liberals by 1 percentage point. Most Greens preferences would flow to Labor and most minor right-wing preferences (from parties like Family First) would flow to One Nation.

The places most likely to see big swings to One Nation are semi-rural or small-town and those with high pre-existing Liberal votes. The main areas are between the Puffing Billy Line and Pakenham Line (south of Emerald – Cockatoo – Gembrook and north of Officer and Pajeham) and also East or South and further away from Melbourne.

Emerald – Cockatoo – Gembrook as well as Clyde North and Officer are middle-upper class. Most households have a mortgage and so they are more sensititve to interest rates. Clyde North and Officer have young-ish, CALD populations.

@Nimalan, good points about Jason Wood successfully appealing to voters from New Citizens to Old Stock Australians however this current environment with the rise of One Nation might be a challenge and whether he could be able to juggle both.
I think Wood successful appeal to CALD might also had been that his wife is Hong Kong Chinese meaning more experience to CALD Communities.

@ Marh
I agree that is the challenge. Jason Wood social media often includes him visited minority places of worship and sending greetings to CALD festivals such as CHinese New Year, Holi, Vesak, Moon Festival. He often wears clothing of CALD people
From people of my own ethnic community who live here i know that he is well liked but Dutton was not in 2025. I do agree with debates on multiculturalism there is a fault line running here. You are correct as his wife is HK chinese and he has a mixed race daughter. When Jason was first elected in 2004 the boundaries were different and the CALD housing estates such as Clyde North did not exist so it would have been a very Anglo electorate until maybe 2016 onwards

I personally reckon if Labor had put the effort in here at the 2025 federal election they could’ve won this given how large the swing was here despite the lack of effort. I think it was not expected for Labor to improve in Victoria and it was widely expected for Victoria to be the problem child.